September 2023 Update

I thought I’d do an update on my current status and what I’m up to.

Work

Unfortunately I got made redundant from my job at Sharesies in March. This was part of company-wide layoffs that saw about 30% of all staff and 50% of my team get made redundant. I was very sorry to leave, it was a great company with great culture and I was working with a great team.

I’m still using their product for my share investments (mostly Smartshares Exchange Traded Funds) and I have a small number of shares/options in the company.

After a job search I started at a new company in April. It is a fairly large company with a complex internal system so I’ve spent the last 5 months getting my head around their internal systems and tools we have to use

My team is part of a global “follow the Sun” operations department so we get a handoff from the US when we start and handover to Ireland at the end of the day. Unfortunately timezones mean I start at around Noon and finish at 8pm and also have to work one in four weekends.

The new company has a pretty good culture, although since it is large there is a lot of corporate overhead. My first month was spent doing something like 40 training courses and that didn’t even cover much of my day-to-day.

Covid / Getting out

My job at Sharesies was 100% work from home so I only spent one week in the office the whole 18 months I was working there. My new job however is a fairly strict 50% in office so I go in 2 or 3 days each week. They do have free food in the office.

Outside of work I still mask on public transport and for most shopping trips. Currently the covid numbers are fairly low so I do about one cafe visit/week. I’ve also been going to Auckland Thursday Night Curry although my new shifts make this difficult.

New Zealand has eliminated all anti-covid measures (such as mask requirements) and we are currently between waves. However there are still a steady number of hospitalisations and deaths so I’m not in a hurry to increase my exposure, especially in places like the supermarket where there isn’t a lot of upside.

I haven’t yet caught covid, but I have caught a cold and persistent cough in mid- 2023.

Weight Loss and Exercise

Between July 2022 and March 2023 I was on a fairly strict diet to lose weight. I was consuming around 1000 Calories/day by just having a couple of small meals each day of potatoes, plus some cheat meals etc.

Peak was losing around 1kg/week but eventually the diet petered out with my new job etc. Overall I went from to 107kg to 79kg. But have put on around 6kg in the 6 months since. I might to a blog post at some point on my diet experience.

I also was using a rowing machine and doing lots of walking. This has been reduced since my new job and the cold winter of 2023.

I am planning to try and restart my diet and do more exercise.

Hobbies

Chess

I have not played any in-person Chess since late 2021. Unfortunately Chess is a high-risk activity for Covid. Lots of Kids and you are in a crowded room for hours at a time.

My new job also involves me working evenings so it will be difficult to play evening Club chess.

Tolkien

I am trying to get more involved with Tolkien Fandom. I’ve join The Tolkien Society and subscribed to their magazines. I’m trying to work though them as well as back issues.

I attended the Ausmoot conference Online in 2023 and I am considering attending in person to Ausmoot 2024. I took an Online course on the Silmarillion also listening to various podcasts.

Linux.conf.au

Unfortunately my regular Linux.conf.au conference was last held Online in 2022 and it looks like it will not be run in future. This means the Sysadmin Miniconf I’ve helped run since 2006 will probably not be held again.

Linux Australia has created the Everything Open as it’s new flagship conference. I didn’t attend in 2023, although I may in future.

Other

I’m still interested in Public Transport, especially Greater Auckland. I’m working on a new article or two on the subject although switching jobs has delayed things.

I’m still working to improve my programming skills

My proposed Business idea hasn’t progressed beyond the planning stages. I have things mapped out but the main gap is getting my programming skills up to being able to create a Django website to host it.

I’m still listening to Audiobooks and also doing around 30 minutes a day of reading books.

I’m still using Twitter but I’ve also joined the BlueSky Social (login required to see my account).

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Audiobooks – August 2023

America, Empire Of Liberty by David Reynolds

90 * 15 minute episodes covering US history. A fun listen although obviously not a huge amount of detail. 3/5

The Night at the Crossroads by Georges Simenon

When a perplexing murder occurs outside Paris, Inspector Maigret arrives at an isolated intersection marked only by two houses and a dingy garage. 3/5

Outlive꞉ The Science and Art of Longevity by Peter Attia

Lots of advice on how to extend your [healthy] years well above the average. Plenty of good advice even if you can’t follow it all. 3/5

Tehanu by Ursula K. Le Guin

The forth Earthsea Book, it follows Tenar (from The Tombs of Atuan) with Ged as a secondary character. Less fantasy and action than the previous books. But still interesting. 3/5

My Rating System

  • 5/5 = Brilliant, top 5 book of the year
  • 4/5 = Above average, strongly recommend
  • 3/5 = Average. in the middle 70% of books I read
  • 2/5 = Disappointing
  • 1/5 = Did not like at all
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Audiobooks – July 2023

Hollywood: The Oral History by Jeanine Basinger, Sam Wasson

Extracts from hundreds of Interviews by the American Film Institute. Great coverage of the Studio System especially. 4/5

Maigret and the Yellow Dog by Georges Simenon.

In the 6th Maigret Book. The leading citizens of a village are being attacked. Maigret must determine why and by whom. 3/5

Beyond Blue Skies: The Rocket Plane Programs That Led to the Space Age by Chris Petty

An account of the US Rocket Plane programs including the X-1 and X-15. Emphasizes the people, politics and stories 4/5

My Rating System

  • 5/5 = Brilliant, top 5 book of the year
  • 4/5 = Above average, strongly recommend
  • 3/5 = Average. in the middle 70% of books I read
  • 2/5 = Disappointing
  • 1/5 = Did not like at all
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Can I Retire at 55 ?

I’ve recently been doing a review of my investments and retirement goals. I was made redundant in early 2023 and made an estimate on how long my savings would last. While it wasn’t enough to retire on it was a good percentage of the way there.

I got a new job after a few weeks but I decided to make some more detailed calculations to see how much I would really need and if I was on track.

Note: That all numbers in the blog post are 2023 New Zealand dollars and I’m assuming are inflation adjusted.

My Situation

I am a New Zealand citizen living in Auckland, New Zealand. I work in IT and have a stay-at-home partner and no children. We rent and don’t own property. We have Investments in Managed Funds and Term Investments plus Kiwisaver Retirement accounts. I am not including any inheritance.

Our total expenditure is around $50,000 per year. About half this is rent. This doesn’t include major purchases ( eg a replacement car ) or travel.

Why retire early?

The big reason to retire early is due to declining health and life expectancy. At 55 I can expect till live till around 85. Which probably means I’ll die in my 80s. If I’m lucky I’ll be able to be fairly active till 70 but probably not past that. Almost certainly at either myself or my partner will be unable to do active activities (eg walking around a city all day or tramping) by 70.

This means if I retire at 65 I might get 5 years of active retirement. Whereas retiring at 55 could give me 15 years, 3 times as much. If I get sick at 67 then the differene is even greater 12 years vs 2.

Retirement scenario

My working scenario is that I will retire at 55. We will then spend $70,000/year for 5 years on extra travel etc. Then $60,000/year in our 60s followed by $50,000/year from 70 onwards.

New Zealand Superannuation will kick in when we each turn 65. This provides around $15,000 after tax for each person.

Running the numbers

So to test this out I’ve been using a free app/site called ficalc.app . It lets you plug in your retirement length, portfolio and spending and it will run it against every starting year (in the US) since 1871. It will then show you the success rate including the “nearly failed”.

A hard year to check against is 1973. A falling stock market and high inflation wipe out a lot of your savings at the start so you need a good initial amount to keep ahead of your later withdrawals.

1973 starting date.

I found I would need around $1,350,000 starting amount for every year to be successful and no near failures for a 30 year retirement. The numbers were virtually the same for 40 years.

However if I adopted the Gayton-Klinger Guardrails strategy and spend up to $5000/year less when my portfolio was down I could get away with just $1,200,000 saved.

The result

It appears that we will need around $1.2 to $1.35m (in 2023 $NZ) to retire at at 55 with my assumed spending patterns. At my current saving rate there is a good chance I could reach this.

Delaying retirement beyond 55 to save more money loses healthy years of retirement with not a lot of upside in risk reduction. However a delay of a year or two greatly improves the expected outcome so it is an option if things look tight.

There will always be some risk. ie a Stockmarket Crash, financial loss, costs increase (eg rent) or health event could cause problems and I would no longer be working to adjust to it.

We also won’t have a lot of spare money to voluntarily spend on things. eg a $40,000 on an extended holiday wouldn’t be in the budget and would be hard to save for.

I ran the numbers assuming I buy rather than rent. However since Auckland housing prices are so high compared to rents it doesn’t seem to be significantly worse than paying rent out of savings.

Resources

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Audiobooks – June 2023

The Player of Games by Iain M. Banks

A Culture novel about an expert game player who goes on a mission to an Empire built on a complex game. Interesting and recommended. 4/5

The Only Plane in the Sky: An Oral History of 9/11 by Garrett M. Graff

Interwoven accounts of the day from participants. 4/5

Last Man Standing by Craig A. Falconer

Lone Man tries to survive space emergency. Tries to be the next “The Martian” but doesn’t succeed. Science flaky. Many people like but I gave up at 30% through 2/5

My Scoring System

  • 5/5 = Brilliant, top 5 book of the year
  • 4/5 = Above average, strongly recommend
  • 3/5 = Average. in the middle 70% of books I read
  • 2/5 = Disappointing
  • 1/5 = Did not like at all
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Audiobooks – May 2023

Napoleon: A Life by Andrew Roberts

A moderately detailed biography single-volume biography that gets good reviews. I could mostly follow the action (except perhaps some of the battles) and characters. Would definitely recommend 4/5

Open: An Autobiography by Andre Agassi

A fairly good memoir by the tennis player. Covers both professional and personal life. The match descriptions work quite well. 3/5

My Scoring System

  • 5/5 = Brilliant, top 5 book of the year
  • 4/5 = Above average, strongly recommend
  • 3/5 = Average. in the middle 70% of books I read
  • 2/5 = Disappointing
  • 1/5 = Did not like at all
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Audiobooks – April 2023

1493: Uncovering the New World Columbus Created by Charles C. Mann

Mostly covering the Colombian Exchange between the Old and New Worlds. With stories of goods, species and people going in both directions. 4/5

The Late Monsieur Gallet by Georges Simenon

A salesman is found shot dead. Maigret finds he was leading a double life, but to what end and why does the case not make sense? 3/5

The Ride of a Lifetime: Lessons Learned from 15 Years as CEO of the Walt Disney Company by Robert Iger

Covers his career before CEO up to his original retirement. Lots of interesting stores and some tips for managers. 4/5

A Man’s Head by Georges Simenon

Suspicious a convicted murderer is innocent Maigret arranges his escape and surveillance. One mysterious man directly challenges Maigret to solve the mysterious web of people around the case. 3/5

Dreams of other worlds: The Amazing Story of Unmanned Space Exploration by Chris Impey and Holly Henry

The story of 12 unmanned space missions. Not as detailed as I’d like, around half of each mission’s chapter goes off on tangents but still good. 3/5

The Hanged Man of Saint-Pholien by Georges Simenon

An unexpected suicide leads Maigret to a pretentious group of youths and another suicide ten years previous. 3/5

Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won the Presidency by Jonathan Allen and Amie Parnes

Covering the 2020 US Presidential primaries and election. Mostly from the Democratic side. Reasonably good but not quite up to the 2008/2012 books. 4/5

My Audiobook Scoring System

  • 5/5 = Brilliant, top 5 book of the year
  • 4/5 = Above average, strongly recommend
  • 3/5 = Average. in the middle 70% of books I read
  • 2/5 = Disappointing
  • 1/5 = Did not like at all
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Audiobooks – March 2023

Pictures at a Revolution: Five Movies and the Birth of the New Hollywood by Mark Harris

The story of the conception, making and release of the 5 Best Picture Nominees at the 1968 Oscars. 4 Classic films and one Bomb. Great book, Highly recommend. 4/5

The Great North Road: London to Edinburgh – 11 Days, 2 Wheels and 1 Ancient Highway by Steve Silk

A mix of travel and history (a 100 year old guide is used and compared). A nice relaxing read. 3/5

Learn Like a Pro: Science-Based Tools to Become Better at Anything by Barbara Oakley

A good general book on learning and study techniques. 3/5

Firepower: How Weapons Shaped Warfare by Paul Lockhart

How weapons developments from 1300 to the end of WW2 shaped how wars were fought at the tactical and operation level. Very interesting, recommended. 4/5

Pietr the Latvian by Georges Simenon

The First Inspector Maigret detective story. A dead body and a live businessman are both match the description of a notorious fraudster. A short interesting listen. 3/5

Build: An Unorthodox Guide to Making Things Worth Making by Tony Fadell

The author talks about his career (at including helping create the ipod, iphone and Nest) and lessons about building products and companies. 4/5

The Crime at Lock 14 by Georges Simenon

A woman’s body is found in a stable near a canal and Inspector Maigret is called to investigate. Her upper-class but disreputable English husband is suspected. Lots of descriptions of Canal life 3/5

Steve Jobs by Walter Isaacson

An authorised (although with plenty of warts) biography of the Apple Founder and CEO. Well written, detailed and interesting. 4/5

The Farthest Shore by Ursula K. Le Guin

Throughout Earthsea magic is dying and people are sicking or going mad. Archmage Sparrowhawk and young Prince set out to investigate. A very real-feeling story. 4/5

My Audiobook Scoring System

  • 5/5 = Brilliant, top 5 book of the year
  • 4/5 = Above average, strongly recommend
  • 3/5 = Average. in the middle 70% of books I read
  • 2/5 = Disappointing
  • 1/5 = Did not like at all
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Audiobooks – February 2023

The Rules of the Game: Jutland and British Naval Command by Andrew Gordon

A very detailed account of the battle of Jutland and British Navel Culture. So detailed I gave up trying to follow the Audiobook but would work better if printed. 3/5

Wings of War: The World War II Fighter Plane that Saved the Allies and the Believers Who Made It Fly by David Fairbank White

The History of the P-51 Mustang through 3 people. Designer Edgar Schmued, Tommy Hitchcock, the man who fought for its adoption, and Don Blakeslee, an ace who flew it. 3/5

The Tombs of Atuan by Ursula K. Le Guin,

The 2nd Earthsea book. A girl grows up as a high priestess until one day Sparrowhawk comes to rob her temple. 3/5

1491: New Revelations of the Americas Before Columbus by Charles C. Mann

Nominally a history of the people’s of the pre-Columbian Americas. Covers the population, age and sophistication of the civilizations based on recent discoveries. 4/5

Geniuses at War: Bletchley Park, Colossus, and the Dawn of the Digital Age by David A. Price

A short book on the Bletchley Park code-breaking efforts of WW2. A general overview concentrating on a few characters with much left under-covered. 4/5

An Unfinished Life: John F. Kennedy, 1917–1963 by Robert Dallek

Good account of life and Presidency although only single volume and the audiobook is further abridged. Well worth it as a first JFK biography. 4/5

Tomorrow’s People: The Future of Humanity in Ten Numbers by Paul Morland

A review of some demographic trends and what they tell us how the world will look in the future. 4/5

Countdown to Pearl Harbor: The Twelve Days to the Attack by Steve Twomey

A chronicle of why America was unprepared for the Japanese Attack on Pearl Harbor. Detailed but a nice and interesting read. 4/5

My Audiobook Scoring System

  • 5/5 = Brilliant, top 5 book of the year
  • 4/5 = Above average, strongly recommend
  • 3/5 = Average. in the middle 70% of books I read
  • 2/5 = Disappointing
  • 1/5 = Did not like at all
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AudioBooks – January 2023

Colditz Prisoners of the Castle by Ben Macintyre

A good contrast to the “Boys Own” versions by Pat Reid I read as a kid. Covers lots of other viewpoints including from the Germans. Recommended 4/5

Project Hail Mary by Andy Weir

Last read July 2021. A semi-repeat of The Martin where a lone astronaut has to science the shit out of a bad situation. This time to save humanity. 4/5

Seven Games: A Human History by Oliver Roeder

Working through increased complexity of Checkers, backgammon, chess, and Go. Poker, Scrabble, and bridge the author looks at how humans and computers play them. 4/5

Daily Rituals: How Artists Work by Mason Curry

161 short articles about the work habits of authors, artists, composers and the like. Interesting with some ideas one can potentially adopt. 3/5

The Extraordinary Life of an Ordinary Man: A Memoir by Paul Newman

Based on tapes recordings made by the actor and those that knew him. Honest and Deep rather than broad and concentrating on his early life and career. 4/5

A Wizard of Earthsea by Ursula K. Le Guin

Classic Children’s Fantasy story that I haven’t read since I was a kid. Told in a very epic tone and language. Good although I missed the map on audiobook. 4/5

My Audiobook Scoring System

  • 5/5 = Brilliant, top 5 book of the year
  • 4/5 = Above average, strongly recommend
  • 3/5 = Average. in the middle 70% of books I read
  • 2/5 = Disappointing
  • 1/5 = Did not like at all
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